Characterization of exposures, doses, and potential casualties from hypothetical atmospheric releases of anthrax
S. Isukapalli, W. Li, S. Tong, P. Lioy, P.G. Georgopoulos
Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute, UMDNJ - R.W. Johnson Medical School and Rutgers University
A comprehensive approach for source-to-dose-to-effect modeling analysis has been applied to study inhalation exposures due to hypothetical atmospheric releases of biological agents (with specific focus on anthrax). This approach is based on the MENTOR system (Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk), and provides a mechanistically consistent analysis of inhalation exposures that extends to estimating potential infections (fatal if untreated) for various release scenarios; while allowing to examine specific subpopulations (such as the elderly) at the resolution of individual census tract. The case presented here considered a hypothetical release of anthrax in the State of Delaware. The outdoor concentrations were calculated using the dispersion model CALPUFF, and were averaged at the census tract level. The concentration data were used in conjunction with plausible human activity patterns and exposure event sequences that were developed using activity diaries from USEPA’s Comprehensive Human Activity Database (CHAD) and demographic information from the US Census Bureau’s 2000 Census Data. Results indicate that the estimates of potential infections are substantially different from those calculated using “standard” approaches that take into account only the ambient concentrations, while ignoring human activities and microenvironmental factors. The approach presented here has been implemented as a detailed model as well as a region-specific, real-time oriented software system for the analysis of potential effects from emergency events.
This work is funded by a subcontract from Quantum Leap Innovations as part of a project for the US Department of Defense (DoD), Office of Naval Research. The viewpoints expressed here are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the DoD or its contractors.