An integrated modeling system for supporting assessments of exposure to aerosols: Application to the New York area for the events of 9/11/2001
Panos G. Georgopoulos,
Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute, UMDNJ
- R.W. Johnson Medical School and Rutgers University
The MENTOR (Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies) system, under continuing development at the Computational Chemodynamics Laboratory (CCL) of EOHSI (Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute), provides an integrated framework that links together a variety of: (a) databases (including both relational and geographic information sustem components) of environmental and microenvironmental attributes and contamination levels, demographic characteristics, human activities, exposure factors, physiological parameters, etc.; (b) models of environmental, microenvironmental, and biological processes; (c) diagnostic computational tools for data mining, management and analysis; and (d) state-of-the-art Bayesian methods for model/data "fusion". The integrated and systematic use of these information/analysis components aims to support mechanistically consistent, source-to-dose, assessments of exposures to contaminants such as fine airborne particulate matter and air toxics, for individuals and populations.
A special adaptation of this system was configured and implemented for New York City and the surrounding area, with the objective to support assessments of the exposure and health impact of the contaminants released from the World Trade Center (WTC) fire and collapse on September 11, 2001 and from the fires and activities during the days that followed. In this implementation, atmospheric transport and fate processes are modeled using the prognostic multiscale RAMS/HYPACT platform (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System combined with the Hybrid Particle & Concentration Transport module), while baseline population exposure distributions are developed using the SHEDS (Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation) approach. A WTC-specific geodatabase, that incorporates multiple environmental, microenvironmental, demographic, etc. components, compiled by various federal, state, and city agencies as well as academic groups, has been developed to complement this implementation of the modeling system and support various case studies that have either been completed or are currently ongoing.