A Hierarchical Modeling and Planning Support System for Responding to Emergency Events
S.S. Isukapalli, P.G. Georgopoulos
Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute, a Joint Institute of UMDNJ-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School and Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ
A hierarchical modeling and planning support system is under ongoing development, that provides estimates of potential impact due to the release of chemical, biological, or nuclear agents in emergency events of various types (industrial accidents, terrorist acts, etc.) This system provides contaminant concentration estimates at various levels of detail: (1) rapid estimates through the use of simplified atmospheric dispersion models such as ALOHA, HPAC, CALPUFF, etc., (2) complex temporal and spatial profiles of the agents in the atmosphere through a highly detailed assessment using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models, and (3) an intermediate level assessment that provides estimates of not only the mean values of concentrations at a location but also the essential statistical properties of fluctuations of these concentrations, thus providing information for estimating risk in a probabilistic framework. The system is GIS-based, and enables comparative evaluation of outcomes from multiple models in a consistent manner, and also provides linkages to multiple supporting databases. Current enhancements to the system are focused on linking contaminant concentration estimates with population distribution, demographics, and human activity patterns in order to estimate exposures and doses, and associated risks. Examples of case studies include biological agents such as anthrax, chemical warfare agents such as sarin, and industrial chemicals such as chlorine.